The Most Important Things in Investing (Reading Notes) 1: To advance your standards of acquisition, you need more wisdom and practice, as well as correct and independent thinking. 2: Emotional restraint is something you must achieve. 3: Investing is a science and an art; you need to use both your brain and your heart. 4: Secrets: 1) The most important risks do not occur when everyone is fearful, but when everyone thinks the risk is very low; 2) The key is not to pursue high risk and high returns, but to pursue low risk and high returns; 3) Trends are important, but cycles are even more so; 4) Actively seek opportunities and patiently wait for them to come. 5: Recognize that the future is unpredictable, prepare in advance, and focus on the present. 6: Understand that short-term performance relies on luck, while long-term performance depends on skill. 7: You must have patience and give yourself enough time; what you want is not short-term windfall profits, but long-term stable returns. 8: Another important thing is to hold firmly. 9: When danger reaches its peak, it triggers a selling frenzy. 10: Holding on without selling is very important; to achieve this requires long-term capital (income) and strong psychological resilience. 11: Investing is a popularity contest; buying when popularity is at its peak is the most dangerous. 12: When the price of something rises, people's fondness for it should decrease; but in investing, their fondness often deepens. 13: When the last person who cannot hold on becomes a buyer, the market often peaks, regardless of fundamentals. 14: If you cannot properly manage risk, your success cannot last; understand and identify risks. 15: Ultimately, the job of a smart investor is to profit while smartly taking on risk. 16: The key to long-term investment success is risk control, not risk-taking; throughout an investment career, most investors’ results depend more on the quantity and extent of investments rather than on great winning investments. Good risk control is the hallmark of an excellent investor. 17: Humans are emotional and find it hard to remain objective consistently; they are often fickle. 18: Ignoring cycles and simply extrapolating trends is the most dangerous thing an investor can do. 19: Everything is interconnected; nothing is isolated or accidental. 20: The best opportunities usually come from doing what most people are unwilling to do. 21: Patiently waiting for opportunities and bargains is often the best strategy. 22: Do not overtake risk and leverage, or adverse outcomes will destroy you. $BTC $ETH #来了！在OKX预测世界杯，瓜分16.66个BTC！

BTC is moving too slowly right now; it usually takes 1-2 months to really understand what's going on. You can't make much money at the moment, so you have to wait patiently. Opening positions now often leads to various stop losses. If you're eager, you can open small positions just to play around, focusing only on BTC and ETH. In the crypto world, many experts say it's easier than the stock market. It's the same in financial markets: those who strive to perfectly time the bottom and capture the entire price surge are extreme cases. I remember Bai Yansong once said, "The best way to ruin someone is to make them seek perfection and reach extremes." A flower is most beautiful before it fully blooms; once fully open, it's close to withering. Similarly, when a flower blooms, translated into price gains, the higher and faster it rises, the closer it is to falling. When you reach the peak, that's the moment the flower falls. So, when bottom fishing, if the flower is already wilting, why enter? Wait for the next bud to appear, then we can go in. $BTC $ETH #ETH机构吸筹：链上近$1亿资金涌入

Actually, the probability of right or wrong in any trading style is about the same. The more skills you master, basically at a glance, you can tell what others are opening positions on here. I don't judge right or wrong. For example, I use liquidity to catch trades: sometimes when I'm wrong, even continuously wrong, it can hit your stop loss so hard that you start doubting your life. Of course, when you open positions, many times you are actually right. Damn, if you go all in at once, and then consecutively open several wrong trades, you’re done for, and then it starts to reverse. This is the normal situation. So accumulating capital is not easy. You must only go heavy when you encounter market conditions you understand well and see big opportunities. When going heavy, don’t go all in; at least keep 30% in reserve to avoid being wiped out by extreme market moves that make you not want to trade anymore, wanting to bang your head against the wall. So you must endure, control, and control again. Money can’t be earned all at once, but it’s very easy to lose. In traditional trading, left-side entries are like this: buy on breakouts, buy on support. You normally need to go through a full bull and bear cycle. Only professional traders can develop this skill. You can catch many opportunities in a year, but you will also fail many times. Don’t just remember the ones you caught. $LAB

The quality of a coin is like building a house; if the foundation isn't solid, how can it last a hundred years? From the chart below, we can observe that the 15-minute line is quite normal, steadily moving upward without issues. Now let's look at the 4-hour chart: at first, it also steadily rises along the moving average, but later it moves far away from the moving average, creating a moving average divergence (the foundation isn't solid enough). At this point, only the following situations can occur: 1. Time is exchanged for space, with a strong sideways consolidation waiting for the foundation to stabilize (the moving average catches up and repairs). 2. Space is exchanged for time, using a price pullback to repair the moving average. 3. Forcibly continuing to pump (a method exclusive to scam coins that trap retail investors). This approach only causes the moving average to diverge further, leading to an even more severe crash afterward. #CFTC历史性批准BTC永续合约

Today let's talk about something off-topic (Why is trading so painful?) Almost everyone who enters the crypto circle wants to get rich quickly; no one wants to lose big. After all, the pressures from real life are so intense—watching the news daily, short videos, and everything around us is suppressing us (education, promotion, starting a family, raising children...) forcing us to focus on money. Everyone is under pressure, collapsing and healing at the same time. Finally arriving in the crypto circle full of legends of sudden wealth, everyone wants to put their savings in, hoping to exchange it for money and personal freedom. But looking back, they find themselves stuck in a quagmire, feeling like they can never return to the past. Watching their funds shrink is a pain like being slowly tortured with a knife, not an instant execution, but a slow torment, back and forth friction, helplessness. Entering the trading market means facing human weaknesses: heavy positions, high leverage, no stop profit or stop loss, hesitation, chasing highs and selling lows, frequent trading, and wishful thinking. You understand the principles but just can't control your hands. I remember a poem: (Youth listens to rain from the song tower. Red candles dim behind gauze curtains. In adulthood, listening to rain on a guest boat. The river is wide, clouds low, a lone wild goose calls in the west wind. Now listening to rain under the monk's hut. Hair already sprinkled with gray. Joy and sorrow, partings and reunions are all heartless. Let the drops fall before the steps until dawn.) My own awakening started at the end of 2021 when I bought 50u four times from an online friend. Only on the fourth time did I slowly begin to find my own trading system. Going from zero to one is a process; after that, copying is fast, but the process is painful. Human growth requires pain. There's a saying: character determines destiny. When you bring what you think is right and your acquired character into trading, it doesn't guarantee profit. Trading goes against human nature; you must first understand yourself (your character). Are you timid and hate drawdowns? Sometimes cautious, sometimes bold and aggressive? Do you prefer excitement and want to become famous in one battle? Freedom? You must first understand yourself. It's very hard, very hard. Hence the classic saying: "Without crying bitterly late at night, you can't talk about life." Whether you can try to change or not, it's very hard to trade well. The truth is, everyone's trading journey starts with pain. Some get off halfway, some persist, and finally come out. Ask yourself more, look at your conditions. You need to consider your time and money costs. It's best to have a homepage, and spend your spare time learning and practicing (small positions). If you can steadily make profits for six months, congratulations!!! $BTC $ETH #纽交所母公司授权OKX推出原油合约

Some investors worry that the trend will suddenly end when opening a position on a stock, but in reality, the trend will definitely end. Before the trend ends, there will be a few more opportunities to buy, but only the final straight drop is the real end. You avoid the final end for the sake of the end, and you also avoid the many opportunities before the sharp end. You should think carefully about the fact that this is an investment with certain risks. It's impossible to completely avoid risk. What you need to do is control risk—control how much risk you should bear, then execute your strategy according to the standard. No risk means no profit; the trend is just a probability you use. No stock will always maintain a trend, but there will always be a stock that breaks the trend. So don't worry—once this stock's trend ends, you can switch to the next trend, and that stock will lose money. Because this is its final chapter. But you are not unlucky every time to get involved in the final end; there is only one end, but there can be several opportunities during the process. This is a well-calculated probability, and at the same time, you don't have to expect every trade to be correct. Trading is a marathon. You just need to make sure the money you earn can cover what you lose. That's good trading. Never expect every move to be profitable—that's just wishful thinking. Because losses are controllable and have stop-losses, what you need to focus on is whether you trust your trading system, stick to your system, and let its probability advantages be realized. Only then can you approach stability. Trading is inherently full of uncertainty, and uncertainty gives people both risk and opportunities. If everything is certain, everyone will come into this market and get rich. Only when you're uncertain about whether you can win can this game exist—there's never a 100% chance of winning. At most, it's between 40% and 70%. If your chances are above 70%, go for it boldly. If it's below 40%, don't join the crowd; You must seize opportunities that are already standard for you in risky situations, because traders don't avoid risk, but take risks that have enough chance of winning. Risk and recklessness are not the same; calculating first and risking later. Uncertainty is hard to change, but risk is something you can control. You can't predict how much you earn, but you can predict how much you lose. So don't be afraid; instead, control and build a trading system with probability advantages, then execute consistently—that's great. $BTC

Charlie Munger's Wisdom. 1: The simplest example of balancing and harmonizing personal desires and outcomes is when a person achieves the desired result through their own efforts. When a boy wants to eat blueberries, he happily goes to pick them; when he is not full, the joy of eating blueberries outweighs the hardship of picking them. But once he is full, the desire to eat blueberries disappears; picking blueberries becomes a monotonous and tedious task. 2: Thoughtful investors will outperform irrational greedy investors. 3: Those who know how to endure setbacks without being frightened by misfortune are like lions; when faced with intimidation, they roar instead of fleeing like other timid people. 4: To make money in this game, patience and capital are required. 5: The human brain is a belief machine that often seeks patterned thinking; people's beliefs govern their daily perceptions and experiences. 6: After long evolution, humans develop strong feelings of insecurity and tension when facing uncertainty, so we tend to believe in soothing words that can relieve this tension. 7: We think we are investing, but in reality, we are speculating. 8: We must soberly face emotional and cognitive errors that may interfere with good investors, and constantly guard against psychological mistakes. 9: How we understand investing ultimately guides our investment decisions. If we consciously adopt cognitive thinking methods and always monitor the rigor of our thought processes, our investment returns will improve. 10: Humans find it difficult to control their mistakes, especially when some people are very stubborn and hold certain beliefs. To become a successful investor, we must be ready to reinterpret market phenomena; fortunately, philosophical knowledge makes our investment journey easier and wiser. 11: Solve confusion through thinking, form your own beliefs, and these beliefs eventually shape habits. 12: The ultimate function of thought is to form behavioral habits. To understand the meaning of thought, we simply analyze what habits thought can form. To understand the meaning of an event, we only need to see what habits are encompassed in that event. 13: The great role of belief lies in summarizing past facts and then leading new trends. Our beliefs are all man-made; these beliefs are conceptual languages humans use to record their observations of nature. Beliefs also become our experiential choices. 14: Become a good thinker. 15: Once we develop the habit of reading critically, we can decide whether the content we read is worth passing through our communication channels, which is extremely important for those of us engaged in investment and finance. 16: I believe in understanding those universally recognized best books rather than sitting idly dreaming of getting something for nothing. If you, like Darwin, maintain great patience and proceed step by step, you will not find it so difficult. You will be amazed at the gains you achieve, not only financially but also in other aspects if you do this. 17: As Buffett often says: Better a fuzzy right than a precise wrong. 18: Unfortunately, when it comes to money, people are not always able to remain rational or reasonable, and we also know subjective probabilities may contain many personal biases. 19: Smart card players wait until the count reaches a high number before placing larger bets. 20: How to think is more important than what to think. $BTC

When trading, there is always a feeling of being toyed with at someone else's fingertips. The price keeps rising when you don't buy, but after you buy, it falls and you cut losses, then it starts rising again. This is a common feeling for many people. Without good entry points, they dare to build positions all the way, which clearly shows a lack of a consistent trading system and rules; trading in the short term is a zero-sum game where everyone is a competitor. Reading Sun Tzu's Art of War gave me some insights: Li Mu's entire process of resisting the Xiongnu perfectly illustrates how to conduct warfare. At the border, he independently set up and managed the collection of taxes based on the actual situation, sending all the revenue to his own troops as funds for recuperation. Every day, he would slaughter a few cattle for the troops to use, training soldiers in horseback archery, carefully assigning many spies to the beacon towers to scout enemy movements, and providing soldiers with generous treatment. He also stipulated that if the Xiongnu invaded the border to plunder, everyone should immediately retreat to the camp for defense. If anyone dared to confront and capture a Xiongnu soldier, they would be executed without mercy. Clearly, Li Mu judged that the forces on all sides were seriously insufficient at the time, so only by holding firm and not taking the initiative could he maintain control. If he went out to meet the Xiongnu, he would lose the initiative and be sure to be defeated. Thus, Li Mu held the border for a long time, enduring as long as he could, almost driving the Xiongnu crazy. Even the King of Zhao thought Li Mu feared the Xiongnu and therefore never fought. So the King recalled Li Mu and appointed another general. For more than a year, every time the Xiongnu attacked, the new general ordered the troops out immediately, often suffering setbacks and heavy losses, causing the border area to be unable to function and severely affecting local livelihoods. At this point, the King of Zhao finally woke up and realized that Li Mu's previous role was completely correct. So he invited Li Mu back. Even in this matter, Li Mu held the initiative. At first, he feigned illness and refused to come out until the King agreed to follow all of Li Mu's plans, then he agreed to return. Li Mu returned to the border and still followed the original rules. When the Xiongnu attacked, they gained nothing again, but they always thought Li Mu was cowardly and dared not fight. Li Mu's troops were well-fed and well-treated every day but did not have to fight, so over time they grew restless and were willing to fight the Xiongnu to the death. At this time, Li Mu felt the moment was gradually ripe. He first used small forces to lure the Xiongnu, then sent small troops to invade, commanding the Zhao army to encircle and patrol with left and right wings, defeating them decisively. He revealed that over 100,000 Xiongnu cavalry were caught in a panic. For more than ten years after, the Xiongnu dared not attack again. I think Li Mu's story perfectly illustrates that warfare is not about taking the initiative to attack, but about distinguishing between being active and having the initiative. Taking the initiative to attack does not necessarily mean having the initiative; sometimes you have to take the opponent's punches. So in trading, your buying does not necessarily mean you have the initiative. It may seem active but is actually passive. Therefore, you need to analyze and judge from multiple dimensions to determine the pros and cons of your current trading plan. In other words, you need a complete trading system, be able to see the patterns and intentions of capital, learn to trial and error, and follow the main force. This is the core of winning. Real trading means you can see the overall situation clearly, understand the changes in each K-line (with high probability), and use this as your trading basis to decide whether to do mid-to-long term or short-term trading, so you can make adjustments. Your trading rules and methods must be consistent; you must do what you say, otherwise seeing the overall picture is useless.

Trading is a reflection of a person's lifetime cognition. An excellent trader defines trading as probability based on their thinking; whether profit or loss, it's a competition. Isn't life the same, full of various possibilities? Not accepting life's uncertainties is a sign of immaturity. Let me say it again: it's probability, and none of it is absolute. To achieve stable profits in the market, you need to improve the probabilities within your cognition and master a trading system with a relatively high success rate. This is also a way to amplify your probability of trading success. Some people trade by casually looking at indicators or buying just by seeing a chart pattern. This can only be called a single probability, but probability does not equal guaranteed rise; it just means the likelihood of an increase is greater than a guess. I believe some friends can understand this statement. Some say, "So you say so much, are you the next Tony? Or you're so good, how much money have you made?" I find this quite laughable. If you made a lot of money, who would still be fighting in this trading market? You might as well travel and enjoy life every day. For many ordinary traders, they don't need too much money; earning a few million can change their life path. So, success is not about reaching the mountain top. For birds born unable to fly, when they flap their wings to fly, they have already won. Living well means having a chance. Friends, don't be discouraged; confidence is as valuable as gold. $BTC

I first started trading contracts in March 2021. Before that, I was only trading spot. Because I kept hearing stories about people getting liquidated and going crazy, borrowing money, gambling, and so on, I was always afraid to touch contracts. It was only after knowing a friend on WeChat who made money trading contracts that I became fascinated with them. At first, I used stop-losses and isolated margin, stubbornly holding positions until liquidation. Eventually, I got liquidated so many times that I started doubting life itself. I got cut both in spot and contracts—does this market even let people play? Luckily, I met a big shot in a group who sincerely taught me patiently without charging, answering all my questions, sometimes teaching until midnight. Slowly, I began to gain some insight. Returning to the market, once you understand stop-losses, you realize the market’s uncertainty and that stop-losses protect you. But the problem is frequent stop-losses, followed by rebounds, back and forth—it’s very frustrating. Later, I reviewed charts, monitored the market, and practiced the entire action plan. That is, after doing a lot of preparation, you decide how likely your position will succeed this time. Only when you prepare everything you should can you understand that planning is up to man, success is up to heaven. So you can’t just blame frequent stop-losses on market volatility or the main players shaking the market. Your entry point must be carefully polished. When your buy point is carefully refined and you think it through before buying, you can truly get on track. To be serious, stop-losses also depend on the person. Some people set stop-losses at 10%, some at 5%. It mainly depends on personal tolerance and one’s own trading system. More importantly, it should be addressed from two other dimensions. The first dimension is the buy point, the predecessor of the stop-loss. The problem with frequent stop-losses is not the stop-loss itself but whether your buy point holds a significant advantage—that is, a good start. The second rule: control your hands, follow your entry rules, don’t shout about heavy positions one moment and go all-in the next. Pay attention: those who can truly handle things well have already prepared when motivation strikes. As mentioned earlier, to have a good result, you must first have a good start. That means being cautious at the beginning and cherishing every bullet in your chamber! $BTC $ETH