6.9 $ETH Evening Market Update There's no clear direction tonight, just waiting. I just checked again, and BTC is still moving sideways, really boring. You all know the 1680 level well, it needs to climb back up quickly. If it can get back, even if it just continues sideways above, it means it's still hanging on by a thread, and only then does it have the chance to test 1746. If it can't get back, it's done for, and 1602 below is basically inevitable. If 1602 can't hold, then this rebound structure is broken, so don't get itchy to catch the dip. Honestly, look downwards, the 1536 to 1503 range, wait for a reliable bottoming signal before thinking about anything else. In this kind of dragging market, no need to overthink it, wait for the US stock market to open tonight and see if the big players can push it. For long positions, watch if it can break above 1680 with volume; real money pushing it up is a one-shot deal. The next targets are 1746, and if it passes that, then 1783. If it drags on without volume, don't trust it. For short positions, keep an eye on 1652; if it breaks down with volume, chase it. The first target is 1608, and if that breaks, look towards 1550. One more thing, don't forget to set stop losses, don't get emotional. Let's review the cycles again. On the hourly chart, watch 1680; if it breaks above, bulls get a breather, otherwise bears remain in control. If the 4-hour candle closes below 1645, it's likely to accelerate down to test 1608 or even lower. On the weekly chart, if it doesn't close above 1800 within three weeks, there's no reason to get excited. If it can't get above 1800, then expect to see 1383 below. This level has been tested twice on the weekly chart, with long wicks, defended by the main players, a solid bottom formed by consensus, much more reliable than those speculative guesses at 1100 or 1200. Only if it can hold above 1800 will the momentum continue; otherwise, it will eventually have to confirm 1383. As for what happens if it really falls to 1383, can't predict that now, let's just survive until then. That's all for now, keep moves light tonight, wait for the US market to give a clear signal. Don't shoot until you see the rabbit. Make your move only when it's clear. $ETH

6.9 $BTC Evening Market Update BTC is still the same as usual, stuck in a range with no real momentum. It dipped a bit this morning, bounced back after hitting support, but then... still couldn't break through. This is the third time it's been pushed down at this level. Without volume or positive catalysts, just grinding in the order book is tough. To move up, it really needs to first clear the 63435 level. If it breaks through with volume, then great, next targets are 64433 and if that breaks, 65788. Can't get past? Then don't get excited, just watch. On the downside, keep an eye on 62392—if that breaks and it can't bounce back above, it’s weak. The next support to watch is 61311. If 61311 breaks, then it could slide down to the 59863-59078 range. Honestly... being stuck in the middle here means the best move is no move. Want to go long? Wait for it to come back near 61311, see a wick with some volume, and a stop of the downtrend signal before trying. Want to short? Either wait for a break below 62392 to chase, or wait for a bounce up that runs out of steam before shorting. Don’t get emotional; this market runs 24/7, and the real opportunities to act might only last a few minutes. Most of the time is just waiting. If you can’t wait, you won’t do well. Oh, and keep the daily chart in mind. BTC is currently capped at 63847 on the daily. If it can’t reclaim that level, don’t talk about stopping the drop or a rebound. There’s an even bigger hurdle at 74000. This structure is basically replaying the previous downtrend. As long as 74000 isn’t reclaimed, any bounce is just a shorting opportunity. Honestly, if this momentum continues, there’s a chance to see 53491, and it might grind below 60k for a long time before slowly climbing back. Anyway, remember the old saying: don’t act unless the structure breaks, and only push right-side with volume breakout. Set your stop losses well to avoid wicks, control your impulses, and wait for the big move. Don’t stare at the screen too much; this kind of market won’t give clear results by watching. $BTC

This 77% big bullish candle on FTT is SBF's "pardon expectation K-line" Shouting orders from prison is even more effective than live streaming Bloomberg just confirmed that SBF has officially submitted a pardon application to the Trump administration #SBF狱中求特赦，FTT暴涨77% His family has been lobbying for months While applying for a pardon, he's also working on a second appeal and retrial In a Fox interview from prison, he directly said he "definitely" wants to be pardoned Still stubbornly claims FTX user repayment rate has reached 170% Says he missed the AI wave and is dissatisfied with the conviction Once the news came out, FTT surged 77% to $0.335 Then it pulled back, classic crypto market pump and dump He is currently serving a 25-year federal sentence If the pardon really succeeds, it will definitely be the most controversial political move in crypto history, bar none The 170% repayment rate figure is really ironic Why didn’t he mention it when he embezzled billions of user funds? Now that the money is gathered, he wants to whitewash and walk away He started crying foul shortly after going to jail Says he missed the AI wave So other people’s money isn’t money, but your time is time, right? From embezzling billions of user funds to now claiming 170% repayment From prisoner to begging the president for a pardon Even a scriptwriter wouldn’t dare write this plot Paying back money is what you should do, not your bargaining chip for sentence reduction Much less a reason for a pardon $BTC $ETH $SOL

This is absolutely outrageous! Just after being harshly called out, he immediately transformed into a market prophet! Not long ago, ZachXBT slammed him hard. For fifteen days straight, he kept hyping four coins: NEAR, HYPE, ZEC, WLD. Fans rushed in after him, but he quietly sold off and ran. In plain terms, he treated his fans like liquidity to exit from. The public outcry was everywhere, and he just responded with a casual line. Fair price, sold to willing buyers. He didn’t even bother to explain further; his attitude was truly cold. Before the hype died down, he immediately published a new article titled "Reality Test." In an instant, he went from a "pump-and-dump operator" to a macro market prophet. #HayesFromDefendantToProphet? His core logic this time is the triple pressure theory. Rising oil prices, liquidity drain from AI mega IPOs, and the implementation of anti-AI regulations. These three negative factors combined will burst the AI bubble and drag down crypto along with it. Many are debating whether this logic holds up. Honestly, the logic is solid and completely reasonable. First, oil prices—this is a hidden major pitfall most people overlook. Once oil prices keep rising, inflation becomes uncontrollable. With inflation heating up, the Fed’s rate cut expectations vanish. Without rate cut expectations, risk assets won’t have a big rally. Crypto itself is highly volatile, so when it falls, it falls hard. Next is the liquidity drain from AI mega IPOs, which is a confirmed reality. SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic—three top giants are lining up to go public. The fundraising scale alone is terrifying. There’s already limited liquidity in the market. Massive funds are being sucked into the AI sector, leaving no new inflows for crypto. No money, no sentiment, no inflows. Naturally, the market struggles to sustain strength. Finally, the shift toward anti-AI regulation is the biggest unexpected factor. Many assume Trump is pro-tech and pro-innovation. But recent moves are completely opposite. Model audits, institutional bans, lawsuits and accountability are all ramping up. The tightening trend is visibly clear. AI used to grow wildly; now it’s being regulated and suppressed. Once the AI bubble contracts, crypto will inevitably fall in tandem. Because this analysis is so on point, the community is split into arguments. One group firmly believes he truly understands macro. His cycle predictions are precise and far more reliable than many institutional analysts. The other group outright rejects it. They think he’s just setting up narratives to manipulate the market. He hyped coins for people to buy, then dumped them himself. Now he’s bearish to create panic, preparing to buy back at lower prices. I can understand both viewpoints. Honestly, these two things don’t conflict in Hayes’ case. He’s not a researcher; he’s a top trader. A trader’s mindset is simple. Understanding trends is basic; using trends to craft narratives and profit is advanced. His writings contain real macro risks. But at the same time, they definitely serve his upcoming position moves. The most surreal part is. The narratives from big players in the circle have a self-fulfilling prophecy effect. The more people turn bearish, the more selling pressure emerges. The bubble really will burst. In the end, his predictions perfectly come true. Putting aside debates about his character and trading style. Just looking at the current market environment. With triple pressure all active, risks definitely outweigh opportunities. No need to stubbornly hold rebounds or gamble on short-term luck. The most comfortable strategy now is to reduce positions and wait. There’s an eternal truth in crypto. Better to miss out than to get trapped. $NEAR $HYPE $ZEC

Exploded! US crypto legislation is entering the sprint phase. Over 200 industry giants are pressuring, with both chambers advancing simultaneously—this time, the rules are really going to be set. #加密立法两院同步推进 Coinbase, Ripple, a16z, Circle, and over 200 other industry giants have jointly petitioned the Senate to bring the Clarity Act to a full vote. This bill has already passed the Banking Committee with a 15-9 bipartisan vote. As Lummis said, it’s just 5 yards away from the touchdown. But honestly, whether it can be implemented by 2026 is uncertain. Institutions estimate the probability at about 50%-70%, and the prediction market is roughly the same. The biggest hurdle isn’t the bill itself, but the Senate’s packed schedule—many issues are ahead, leaving little time for crypto. Also, it needs to pass the 60-vote threshold, and a few Democratic crossovers are still needed, so there’s still uncertainty. Once the November midterm elections hit, Congress will recess, so if it’s not done before then, it will likely be delayed until next year. However, there’s something closer than regulatory implementation that directly impacts your wallet—the tax reform in the House. They just held hearings on 7 crypto tax reforms, with two being the most critical and relevant to everyone. The first is small transaction tax exemption. You all know how ridiculous the old rule was—buying a $5 coffee with Bitcoin, if the price rose by 6 cents since you bought it, you had to report taxes to the IRS. Kraken issued 56 million tax forms last year; one-third were for transactions under $1, and 75% were below $50—pure nonsense. If this proposal passes, whether the threshold is set at $300 or $600 per transaction, daily small purchases and transfers won’t require itemized tax reporting anymore, effectively removing the biggest compliance barrier for crypto payments. Using USDC to buy things could really become as convenient as Alipay. The second is clear tax rules for staking mining, which is even more important—DeFi users and stakers, raise your hands. The IRS’s previous approach was truly inhumane: you had to pay income tax at market value the moment you received staking rewards, and then pay capital gains tax again when you sold them—double taxation. Often, the rewards were locked and couldn’t be sold immediately, yet you still had to pay taxes out of pocket, forcing many to sell their coins at a loss just to cover taxes. The new bill aims to fix this, most likely allowing tax deferral until liquidation. Whatever the final rule, it will be thousands of times better than the current system. Overall, this time it’s really different. From the SEC’s daily crackdown to Congress seriously sitting down to set rules, the industry is finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. There will definitely be disputes and struggles during the process, but the direction is set. With clear regulation, institutional big money will dare to enter on a large scale, which is definitely good for the industry’s long-term future. $BTC $USDC $USDT

What’s most worth mentioning in the market today isn’t the semiconductor’s single-day surge of over 5% or South Korea’s KOSPI jumping nearly 4%, but rather that geopolitical risk has finally, in the most brutal way, proven its absolute pricing power over tech assets. The vast majority previously thought geopolitical conflicts were just short-term pulses—rise and run, not worthy of being part of a long-term pricing framework. This time, it really slapped everyone in the face. The pricing power of geopolitical risk over tech assets has been seriously underestimated by most. #三方停火信号，半导体单日涨超5% Semiconductors are the most fragile industry in the global supply chain, bar none. From Dutch lithography machines, South Korean memory chips, Taiwanese wafer foundries, to U.S. design—any link stuck in geopolitical conflict will directly paralyze the entire industry’s capacity and delivery. Everyone’s eyes were previously fixed on the Fed’s interest rates, industry cycle inflection points, and AI demand surges. Honestly, they forgot this fundamental supply chain security logic. As long as geopolitical uncertainty remains, tech asset valuations will always carry an invisible risk discount. Conversely, any sign of easing will immediately trigger a violent valuation rebound, just like today. Now, about the oil price and crypto correlation that everyone cares about. This correlation is now ridiculously high—almost moving in lockstep. The core transmission chain is very clear: geopolitical conflict pushes oil prices up, inflation expectations rise, Fed rate cut expectations delay, the dollar strengthens, and all risk assets come under pressure. The reverse is also true. As soon as the ceasefire news came out today, oil prices plunged, the market instantly priced in a full probability of a September rate cut, crypto and semiconductors surged simultaneously, with no more than half a second delay across the entire chain. In the past, geopolitical factors were at most a nice-to-have reference in trading, and many didn’t even pay attention. Now it must be the foremost precondition, especially when trading highly sensitive assets like semiconductors, energy, and crypto. A sudden news event can wipe out a week’s profits or cause you to miss a once-in-half-a-year major market move. Stop thinking geopolitical issues are just news that don’t concern you. They have long been concretely written into the price of every asset. In today’s market, traders who ignore geopolitics will sooner or later pay the price for their blind spots in understanding. $MU $NVDA $INTC

Damn, it just exploded. OpenAI just officially announced a secret filing, and Ultraman's line "Since it's going to leak anyway, might as well say it yourself" is really honest. Now it's settled: SpaceX goes public on June 12, Anthropic filed on June 1, and OpenAI directly follows on the 8th. Together, these three are valued close to $4 trillion, the largest tech IPO wave in history, hitting us right in the face. Hayes liquidated all HYPE and reduced NEAR last week. At the time, I thought he overreacted, but now it seems he really got the news early. He said AI IPOs would drain liquidity from crypto, and I basically agree with that judgment now. But one thing needs to be clear: it's not a direct drain, it's layered. Global US dollar risk capital is basically one big pool. Previously, crypto and AI could play separately, but now with three trillion-dollar projects launching simultaneously, institutions need chips and must free up money from elsewhere. The easiest to be freed up are crypto assets, which are also high-risk and highly volatile. But not all crypto will be drained; BTC and ETH are now institutional allocation assets with deep liquidity and strong shock resistance. The ones really doomed are those long-tail altcoins relying purely on narrative without fundamentals. These were always scraps for institutions to make quick money. Now with more mainstream, compliant, and certain AI new stocks, who would still play with air? Once the AI sector corrects, crypto will definitely be dragged down, and the drop will only be harsher. The correlation between BTC and Nasdaq is already 0.65, higher than gold. The AI sector is now the global leader of risk assets; when the leader falls, all high-risk assets go down with it. Hayes' latest article "Reality Test" clearly states that the AI bubble has three explosion points: oil price surge, market unable to absorb so many IPOs, and anti-AI sentiment rising after Trump's election. If any one of these blows up, AI stocks fall first, then institutions sell the most liquid assets, namely BTC and ETH, to cover margin. History has already proven this: in January this year, AI chip stocks corrected 15%, BTC dropped 25%, and ETH fell 32%. Crypto always has higher beta; it can't outperform AI on the way up but falls harder on the way down—those who understand know. As for the market's daily talk about sentiment resonance, it only exists in very short cycles and is completely invalid long-term. In the short term, OpenAI's listing will definitely push AI hype again, and AI tokens in crypto will definitely hype up for a few days. But remember, this is just sentiment transmission, not fundamental transmission. Real AI investment is in US stocks; the total market cap of crypto AI sector is only $15 billion, not even a fraction of OpenAI's. To be blunt, they don't really include you. Moreover, sentiment comes fast and goes even faster. Once AI new stocks officially list and real money flows in, crypto's heat will instantly cool off. Simply put, this is not about who wins or loses between AI and crypto; it's about global liquidity redistribution. There's only so much money; it goes where certainty is higher, that's all. #AI超级IPO时代开启：OpenAI秘密递表 $OPENAI $ANTHROPIC $SPACE

6.9 $BTC$ETH Midday Market Update | Bored to Smoke Good afternoon, brothers. The way BTC is moving... honestly, watching the market is just a waste of electricity. The range is pitifully narrow, bouncing between 64244 and 62661, just a few hundred points—honestly, the fees eat up any space. When there's no clear direction, don't get itchy-handed; the more you try to trade, the more likely you are to get hit. Remember 62156, the M-head neckline and also the bullish trendline. As long as it doesn't break, bears shouldn't get ahead of themselves; 59865 is off the table for now. But if it lingers here too long, will it cascade down? Unlikely. The usual trick of the manipulative whales is to fake a break below to trigger stop losses of bulls, then slowly pull it back up. If you want to act, wait for signals: a volume-backed surge above 62887 to chase longs, targeting 64467 and 65847. A volume-backed break below 62377 with a failed rebound means chasing shorts, targeting 61295 and 60136. Before any signal appears, trading is just working for the exchange. As for ETH, it's even weaker. It surged to 1680 but failed to hold and dropped back, now hovering in a weak zone. 1680 is ETH's lifeline; if it holds and rebounds, it can breathe, targeting 1714 and 1746. If it can't hold, it will test 1602. 1602 is the last bottom line; as long as it doesn't break, bulls aren't done. If it breaks, it heads straight to 1536. Chase longs on volume above 1677, stop loss set at the pullback. Chase shorts on volume break below 1643, stop loss set above. For those trying to sneak in on the left side, if 1603 holds, you can gamble on a long; break 1562 and get out fast. If there's a fakeout spike to buy at 1543, place longs; break 1503 and admit defeat. Around 1746, you can try a short; if it breaks 1785, you must run, don't hold on. Summary: Watch BTC at 62887, ETH at 1680. If these two can't hold, don't call a bull run. Downside targets are BTC 62156 and ETH 1602; whichever breaks first, trade that side. If neither breaks, just relax and watch. In this market, not losing is winning. Control your hands, good afternoon ☕️ $BTC $ETH

6.8 $ETH Evening Market Analysis for Ethereum Futures As long as the bullish trendline holds, the bears can't do much damage. If it breaks, 1603 is the next target. If 1603 gets decisively broken, 1537 will come back into play. If it can hold, expect consolidation between 1603 and 1680, a boring sideways market. Don't keep asking if Ethereum futures can rise. To be blunt—if it can't break above 1680, forget about a rally. The hourly chart is just oscillating within a range recently, looking like it might break out, but it's all fake moves. Just glance at the 4-hour chart and you'll understand; don't get fooled by a single bullish candle on a smaller timeframe. The daily chart's recent pattern is honestly a bit ambiguous—could be a Morning Star or a variant of a Piercing Pattern, doesn't really matter. It's not a textbook pattern, so its strength is discounted. Even if you force it as a Morning Star, it only suggests the daily might bounce, but if it can't surpass 1798, it's all meaningless. 1798 is the daily chart's critical level; only when bulls firmly hold this level can Ethereum futures show strength, return to the upper consolidation zone, and talk about a structural rebound. Otherwise, just surviving above 1500 is good enough. A retracement near 1745 is a potential short opportunity, whether it works out depends on the market. If 1655 breaks down with volume, look lower; note the volume is key—don't chase a slow decline. On the hourly chart, holding above 1680 points to targets at 1745-1781. On the 4-hour chart, breaking below 1632 points to a range between 1600 and 1550. Set your stop losses properly, don't hold losing positions; the market doesn't favor anyone. If I'm wrong, I admit it—staying alive is the most important thing. $ETH

It's like a fish tank having most of its water drained; from 900 billion to 1 trillion, the TGA is steadily increasing, and all the various coins in the pool must face the severe test of liquidity shortage. The U.S. Treasury plans to steadily replenish the Treasury General Account. The goal is to reach 900 billion by the end of June. By the end of July, it will directly hit 1 trillion. #美国TGA扩张：加密市场流动性承压 In simple terms, this operation continuously withdraws funds from the market. The TGA is the government's treasury wallet. As the balance keeps rising, it directly compresses bank reserves. Market liquidity tightens step by step. Our crypto market thrives on liquidity dividends and will naturally face obvious suppression. The pressure on the market going forward mainly depends on two points. If the replenishment speed exceeds expectations, the short-term bloodletting effect will be maximized. Short-term market pressure is unavoidable. Conversely, if the Federal Reserve intervenes to hedge the liquidity gap, the actual impact will be much weaker. Looking back at past trends reveals a pattern. Historically, during phases of significant TGA expansion, risk assets like BTC generally weaken in stages. In a tightening liquidity environment, differences among coins quickly widen. Let's start with BTC. Recognized by the market as a ballast stone, it has deep liquidity and institutional backing. Its retracement is relatively mild, and it has the strongest resilience. Next, stablecoins. Top-tier compliant stablecoins become the first choice for capital safety. But niche coins and algorithmic stablecoins should be avoided; when liquidity tightens, the risk of de-pegging rises sharply. Then various altcoins. Large mainstream altcoins have fundamentals and support, so their declines have a floor. Small and mid-cap coins inherently lack liquidity; once funds withdraw, they tend to decline continuously. Finally, MEME coins. Purely driven by sentiment and short-term speculation without fundamental support. After liquidity recedes, their volatility is extreme, making them the riskiest category currently. Some practical holding strategies. At this stage, seek overall stability; avoid blindly heavy positions for speculation. Try to allocate more towards BTC and top stablecoins. Stay away from small-cap altcoins and MEME to avoid unnecessary risks. Keep an eye on two signals regularly. One is the actual speed of TGA replenishment; the other is whether the Federal Reserve intervenes to hedge. When the wind changes, market rhythm will follow. Overall, this is not a major bear market but more like a liquidity reshuffle. Weak assets will gradually be eliminated by the market. True core assets can steadily withstand adjustments and patiently await the next opportunity. $BTC $ETH $SOL