Phyrex.Ni
Phyrex.Ni
No extravagance, no waste
0Following
2.4Kfollowers
Feed
Feed
Trump is now pretending to be clueless while fully aware. Today, both the US stock market and cryptocurrencies represented by bitcoin:native are falling, while US Treasury yields are rising across the board from short-term to long-term. This indicates that investors have very low expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. Previously, the US stock market consistently ignored US macro-political factors, believing that AI could drive the stock market to unlimited gains.
This recent decline might even increase the willingness of US stock investors to buy the dip, since the AI narrative still hasn't shown signs of a bubble bursting. Even the downturn is due to investors' expectations that US inflation might be uncontrollable, and the root cause of this concern is the Strait of Hormuz. As long as Trump hasn't resolved the situation at the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices cannot fall, and investors' worries will grow.
Of course, IPOs like SpaceX sucking up capital are normal. Right now, countless people are scrambling for SpaceX IPO allocations, and market expectations for SpaceX are very high. These are catalysts in themselves, but what really puts the market on the defensive is the rising inflation expectations, forcing many investors to abandon their long-term holding goals and switch to short-term speculation.
Phyrex.Ni
The just-released non-farm payroll data is fairly decent. The unemployment rate has consistently stayed at 4.3%, indicating that the US employment situation has not significantly worsened. Although non-farm employment is lower than the previous figure, it still exceeded expectations. Additionally, wage changes were almost entirely within expectations. Overall, this non-farm payroll data is at least not bad.
From my personal perspective. If your main sources of income are U.S. stocks or cryptocurrencies, then being a tax resident in a country or region with no capital gains tax is the best choice.
FinTax (加密税务答疑版)
Receiving a tax reminder only means that you have been flagged as suspicious by the system. Whether, how, and how much tax you need to pay depends on subsequent circumstances.
It is recommended to prepare in three steps:
1. First, review your overseas income situation yourself: what type of income it is, in which jurisdiction, and which parts have most likely already been reported back;
2. Analyze which type of income is reasonably taxed under which criteria. For example, year-end bonuses for high earners are generally not included in the comprehensive income of the current year but are more reasonably taxed separately;
3. Check if there are applicable tax credits, dual tax residency issues, tax treaties, and other related matters.
At the same time, maintain active communication with the tax authorities
The just-released non-farm payroll data is fairly decent. The unemployment rate has consistently stayed at 4.3%, indicating that the US employment situation has not significantly worsened. Although non-farm employment is lower than the previous figure, it still exceeded expectations. Additionally, wage changes were almost entirely within expectations. Overall, this non-farm payroll data is at least not bad.
Phyrex.Ni
In April, the US CPI and PPI data were both higher than the previous values and expectations, but the market had a better understanding of the PCE data for April. Although the annual rate data released today were also higher than the previous values, they were within the expected range. However, compared to the increases in CPI and PPI, the rise in PCE data was not significant.
Even the monthly rate data were lower than the previous values. Both the core PCE monthly rate and the PCE monthly rate were lower than before. This is mainly because the weighting of PCE differs from CPI; shocks like energy, gasoline, and rent are more easily amplified in CPI.
CPI reflects out-of-pocket prices for urban consumers, while PCE covers total personal consumption expenditures, with weights adjusted according to changes in consumption behavior.
Simply put, if oil prices rise, CPI directly shows "gasoline prices rose a lot," while PCE also considers whether consumers have changed their actual consumption patterns, such as driving less, consuming less, or switching to cheaper alternatives. Therefore, the same price shock may have different weights in PCE.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve focuses most on the core PCE data, which is still acceptable, having only risen 0.1% compared to March. The market should temporarily breathe a slight sigh of relief.
#Bitget comes with VIP! Crypto, US stocks, CFDs, global opportunities all in one place
This purge of existing users was probably anticipated. The current situation is just like on September 4, 2017, when all cryptocurrency exchanges within China were shut down, and gradually cryptocurrency exchanges were banned from operating in China. It's been almost 9 years now, so what was the outcome?
Hard blockades are very difficult to enforce; ultimately, these "exchanges" just relocate overseas. Although the main entities move, the primary customer base remains the same people. Then they start aggressively shutting down OTC, and some OTC activities are even directly criminalized.
Of course, it cannot be denied that after long-term propaganda, cryptocurrency within China is still treated like a flood monster, always associated with scams. Every now and then, you see self-media claiming bitcoin:native is a tool for Americans to harvest the whole world. Maybe in some time, AI will face the same treatment.
I believe that if the AI sector ever experiences a significant correction, many passionate young people will come out to protest.
Received a message from @jason_chen998 before going to sleep and noticed that ethereum:0x7977bf3e7e0c954d12cdca3e013adaf57e0b06e0 has doubled. Is this the prelude to the World Cup starting?
Opinion has been quiet for a long time, but finally chose this way to remind everyone that the battle for dominance in the prediction market is about to begin.
The WTI at 97 dollars hasn't been bought yet. Although I don't necessarily believe everything Trump says is true, it currently seems that the US and Iran are indeed trying to avoid further escalation of the war, and the Strait of Hormuz is the bargaining chip in this conflict. The US is blockading Iranian ports, Iran is blockading Hormuz, but Hormuz does not belong to Iran.
Today, some friends suggested that the US might be deliberately raising oil prices to devalue the dollar. I strongly disagree with this view. Indeed, if oil prices rise to 150 dollars, it means one dollar can buy less oil, so the dollar is relatively devalued against oil.
However, US debt, wages, taxes, military spending, social security, healthcare, and national debt interest are all denominated in dollars, not paid in oil. If the US owes 150 dollars, it doesn't mean it can repay with just one barrel of oil because oil prices have risen to 150 dollars. The US repays debt in dollars, not oil.
Moreover, high oil prices are not purely beneficial to the US. The US still imports a large amount of crude oil, especially different types needed by refineries. The US is a major oil producer but also a super consumer. High oil prices benefit shale oil, energy companies, and some export chains, but the costs are passed on to gasoline, diesel, aviation, logistics, agriculture, manufacturing, and ordinary consumers.
Therefore, high oil prices are not a perfect tool for the US to "plunder the world"; they are more like a double-edged sword.
Although it can hit energy importers like China, Europe, Japan, and India, it also pushes up inflation in the US. The inflation data in the past month has clearly rebounded, and with rising inflation, the Federal Reserve finds it harder to cut interest rates, and the US fiscal interest burden becomes more difficult to ease.
So, oil at 150 dollars is not necessarily a cure for US finances; it might actually be poison. Therefore, I think Trump, whether from the perspective of the midterm elections or the stock market needing to rise, will not allow oil prices to stay high for long. At least at this stage, high oil prices are equivalent to Trump digging his own grave.
#Bitget comes with VIP status! Crypto, US stocks, CFDs, global opportunities all in one place
Phyrex.Ni
This time, I added short positions on WTI at $93, $94, and $96 respectively. Actually, thinking about it now, I was a bit too optimistic about $85. Although I expected some fluctuations, since I rarely do short-term trades, I didn't have the concept of taking profits early and exiting. This led to another round of rollercoaster trading. Although overall I am still profitable, I could have done one more round.
Of course, these are not the main points. The main point is that I still believe there is no problem with shorting WTI. Even now, Trump hasn't said he doesn't intend to negotiate, Iran hasn't escalated the conflict further, the US midterm elections are coming soon, and the blockade of Iran's coast is also critical.
In this situation, I think the more both sides are entangled, the more it indicates that the negotiations have reached a detailed and critical phase, with a stance of no concessions. Most likely, the rest will be a grind. Be sure to watch out for liquidation prices; I am still above $120.
The current average price is $93.48, with a current loss of 29%.
Investors from BlackRock and Fidelity are still leading the sell-off, but the volume of selling is relatively small, at least much better than during the previous market panic. Currently, it's basically investors who bought ethereum:native in the last two to three months who are exiting. The sentiment from MSTR selling bitcoin:native has not yet dissipated, so we still need to wait a bit longer.
#Bitget means VIP! Crypto, US stocks, CFDs, global opportunities all in one place
Phyrex.Ni
Monday's data for ethereum:native was still pretty good, mainly because ETH had already dropped below $2,000 by Monday. The reaction from traditional investors was quite decent, with BlackRock's investors selling the most, while Fidelity's investors did some bottom-fishing on Friday. It's estimated that those bottom-fishing investors ran on Monday. Currently, ETH almost has no independence.
Of course, this time bitcoin:native showed independence, but I guess no one wants that kind of independence to happen to ETH. However, putting all hopes on a single commercial company and expecting that company to never sell any BTC or ETH is itself unscientific. Let's just take this as a demystification.
#Bitget When you come, you are VIP! Crypto, US stocks, CFDs, global opportunities all in one place
This time, I added short positions on WTI at $93, $94, and $96 respectively. Actually, thinking about it now, I was a bit too optimistic about $85. Although I expected some fluctuations, since I rarely do short-term trades, I didn't have the concept of taking profits early and exiting. This led to another round of rollercoaster trading. Although overall I am still profitable, I could have done one more round.
Of course, these are not the main points. The main point is that I still believe there is no problem with shorting WTI. Even now, Trump hasn't said he doesn't intend to negotiate, Iran hasn't escalated the conflict further, the US midterm elections are coming soon, and the blockade of Iran's coast is also critical.
In this situation, I think the more both sides are entangled, the more it indicates that the negotiations have reached a detailed and critical phase, with a stance of no concessions. Most likely, the rest will be a grind. Be sure to watch out for liquidation prices; I am still above $120.
The current average price is $93.48, with a current loss of 29%.
Phyrex.Ni
Continue to maintain a short position on WTI, and continue to hold the view that the first target is $85, but no stop-loss is set at $85.
No additional positions were added today, but if it exceeds my entry price of $93, I will consider starting to add positions.
Previously, I was prepared to add positions only above $95.
In the early morning, people were still complaining that the fees were too high. As long as you're not foolish, you will definitely adjust. As a result, the adjustment happened this afternoon. Although it is "temporary," if everyone competes to lower fees, this temporary period will last as long as the "temporary" ceasefires between the US and Iran.
Phyrex.Ni
Today I saw many friends saying that the @binancezh stock system is not perfect, which reminded me of the previous @BinanceWallet. Back then, the criticism of the wallet was even harsher. At that time, Binance's wallet was basically a nightmare level, but just one Alpha update completely reversed the wallet's status and also gave the wallet team more references for fixes.
Moreover, when it comes to taking advice, I think Binance is doing pretty well. If there’s a problem, people complain, and if they can fix it after the complaints, that’s great. Regarding the fee issue, I remember I complained for several days about the funding rate of CLUSDT being too high, and it was adjusted. This time, even more people are complaining about high fees, so it might be adjusted soon as well.
The past month should be a crazy time for all companies to compete for talent. I think as long as people aren’t foolish, many problems should be quickly fixed.
Today I saw many friends saying that the @binancezh stock system is not perfect, which reminded me of the previous @BinanceWallet. Back then, the criticism of the wallet was even harsher. At that time, Binance's wallet was basically a nightmare level, but just one Alpha update completely reversed the wallet's status and also gave the wallet team more references for fixes.
Moreover, when it comes to taking advice, I think Binance is doing pretty well. If there’s a problem, people complain, and if they can fix it after the complaints, that’s great. Regarding the fee issue, I remember I complained for several days about the funding rate of CLUSDT being too high, and it was adjusted. This time, even more people are complaining about high fees, so it might be adjusted soon as well.
The past month should be a crazy time for all companies to compete for talent. I think as long as people aren’t foolish, many problems should be quickly fixed.
Phyrex.Ni
超详细解读 @binance 的股票交易 — 极致谨慎下的券商牌照分层模式
我详细了解了 Binance 的股票模式以后，不得不佩服 Binance 在合规上的极致小心，可以这么说，目前我看到的多数加密货币交易所的股票形式都是合规的，但 Binance 做的不仅仅是合规，还是一种更谨慎的“牌照”分层模式。
很多交易所接的底层券商都是 Alpaca 这个美国合规的券商，这已经是公开的秘密了，虽然 Binance 也是接的 Alpaca ，但却多了一层 Nest Trading 这个在 ADGM 注册的金融公司。
（Financial Firm，FSP 编号 260000，于 2026年1月5日 生效，Nest Trading 不允许持有或控制客户资金或客户投资。）
Nest Trading 是干嘛的呢？在此之前，可能小伙伴们并不知道，Binance 具体是什么？
Binance 现在更像一个品牌或者集团，而不是单一的一家公司。就像是 Google 其实属于 Alphabet 一个道理。
Binance 在阿布扎比全球市场（ADGM）监管框架下有三大核心实体，分别是：
Nest Exchange Limited：交易所（Exchange）
Nest Clearing and Custody Limited：清算与托管（Clearing & Custody）
Nest Trading Limited：券商（Broker-Dealer）
如果用传统金融来理解，就相当于 Binance 把以前一个交易所内部完成的所有事情，拆成了交易所，清算所，托管机构和券商这几个部分。
这种结构其实更像 Nasdaq 负责交易，DTCC 负责清算，券商负责客户和订单的模式，而不是过去那种一个交易所同时负责交易、清算、托管、OTC、理财、转换。
而其中的 Nest Trading 主要就是负责：
1. Arranging Deals in Investments（安排证券交易）
2. Dealing in Investments as Agent（代理交易）
3. Dealing in Investments as Principal（自营交易）
4. Managing Assets（资产管理）
5. Arranging Custody（安排托管）
6.Providing Money Services（资金服务）
总的来说，Nest Trading 实际是一家 Broker-Dealer（券商） + Wealth Platform（理财平台） + OTC Desk（大宗交易部门） 的公司，说人话就是专门负责券商业务的。
所以 #Binance 并不是直接用交易所的主体去对接的 Alpaca ，而是绕了一层通过 Nest Trading 去对接 Alpaca ，这样的好处就在于 Binance 没有直接用交易所主体承接证券经纪服务，而是把证券相关业务放到了 Nest Trading 这个 Broker-Dealer 主体下面，从牌照层面完成了更清楚的业务分层。
这就是我开头说的“牌照”分层。
如果一个交易所直接接 Alpaca，当然也可以是合规的。只要底层券商、开户、KYC、交易、清算、托管、分红、公司行动都处理完整，这个模式本身没有问题。但 Binance 的问题在于用户量、交易量、监管历史、全球覆盖范围都太大。
如果直接用 Binance 交易所主体去连接 Alpaca，就很容易被外界理解成 Binance 自己在向全球用户提供美股券商服务。
但现在多了一层 Nest Trading，逻辑就变成了用户在 Binance 前端下单，Binance 提供交易入口和账户体验，Nest Trading 作为券商主体负责承接和安排证券交易，再把订单路由给 Alpaca，由 Alpaca 负责真实的美股执行、清算、结算、托管、分红和公司行动处理。
这就是牌照分层。
PS：这也是为什么我会强调 Binance 的组成是三大核心实体，其中 Nest Trading 就是核心实体之一，只是在“牌照”上的不同使用。
这样一来，每一层持牌主体的边界就更清楚 Binance 负责前端入口和账户体验，Nest Trading 负责证券经纪和订单安排，Alpaca 负责执行、清算、结算和托管。对于监管和用户来说，每一类金融服务都有对应的持牌主体承接。
这就比单纯“交易所接券商 API”更谨慎。
对用户来说，这种模式最大的意义就是在 Binance 看到的是用 USDT、USDC、BNB 等资产买美股和 ETF，但底层的股票交易会通过 Nest Trading 这个券商主体安排，再交给 Alpaca 去完成执行、清算、结算和托管，所以流动性来自真实美股市场，公司行动也可以由底层券商体系处理，比如分红、拆股、合股、代码变更、退市处理等。
所以 Binance 这次股票交易带来的升级，不只是让用户可以在交易所里买美股和 ETF，而是把自己从单一加密货币交易所进一步升级成全球多资产金融入口。
通过自身 ADGM 框架下的 Broker-Dealer 主体 Nest Trading 去对接 Alpaca，而不是直接用交易所主体承接证券经纪服务，这样既保留了 Binance 前端的用户体验，也让证券经纪、订单安排、执行、清算、结算和托管分别落到更清楚的持牌主体下面。
在合规的基础上，降低了直接用交易所主体开展证券经纪业务带来的牌照错配和监管解释成本。
因此就有了 Binance 前端 + Nest Trading 券商主体 + Alpaca 执行清算托管的这套牌照分层模式。
